Byapaar.com -The Indian Business Blog

First of all, I would like to beg your pardon for not updating this blog for so long. It has been quite a long story – but in short “Politics” kept me pre-occupied for close to two months.

From declaration of Indian General Election to announcement of results and till the full Central Ministry formation – I got soaked into Indian national politics.

Some of my regular readers might wonder what do I have to do with politics as I work in a school! Well, here is my clarification:

I work in a semi-government school which means – all the expenditures of the school is borne by the government and we enjoy all the benefit of a government employee. But our school administration is run by a Managing Committee whereas that of a fully government school is run by the School Education department of the government. We can also participate into active politics unlike government employees who are forbidden to participate in active politics. For being involved with a particular political party- we don’t have to put in any declaration or resignation papers.

Under the circumstances, I joined Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) just one month before election. Being a teacher does help a great deal in politics as I was immediately given the post of Vice-President in our Mondol Committee (state assembly segment level). So I had to get involved into high-voltage election campaigns. My responsibity was more as the Member of Parliament (MP) candidate from our party comes from same village – barely few hundred meters far from my house.

I am not here to justify BJP policies – but I must say that I had no option but to join them. In our state Congress (I) is in total organizational disarray, and I can never ever join in the Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPI(M) – as they are totally non-communist in practice. They are more bourgeoisie than even hardcore Capitalist of USA. To be frank – they are communist just by name – in practice all those big capitalist captains of the west would pale before them.

BJP is still in a nascent stage in my state – so I can join them and try to influence them. That has been my rationale.

Let forget it now – for the time being. My heartiest congratulation goes to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) for the decisive mandate they got. I look forward to them taking the economic reforms forward with more human touch so that all poor of India benefit from the economic boom the county has been witnessing for more than one decade now.

The business communities and investors across boundaries have also been rejoicing for the way Indians have shown a decisive mandate for the UPA and the way they discarded the problematic, out-of-date ideas of the present Left Front. The UPA win taste much sweeter as they got the mandate after literally demolishing the ever opportunistic and negative politics of the Left parties. The election has thrown a big question over survival of the Left politics in India. The sooner they are extinct, the better for Indian poor and deprived people. Because their politics is that of keeping people hungry for want of government help– so that they are forced to join them which tantamount to deception.

The mood of the Indian business and investment community can be seen in the way they stock market has responded. The main market sentiment indicator “Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index (BSE SENSEX) has gained more than 5,000 points since the election result was announced. In between, the Reserve Bank of India also announced that – Indian economy (Gross Domestic Product or GDP) has grown by 5.8 percent during last financial year (2008-2009). It is a big decrease from the previous year – but still very good considering the financial turmoil that has engulfed the world during last year when most big economies saw negative growth of their GDP.

The international business communities have also shown positive responses over the outlook of Indian economy. Recently, renowned international credit rating agency has given Indian economy a “STABLE” status. It seems other agencies will soon bring out their ratings and by all indications they will move in the positive directions instead of negative directions.

That’s for today now. I have serious plans to resume my regular online routine very soon. So “HANG ON” friends –more posts with mix of Indian business and politics will follow on the blog on regular basis.

As always, before I go into my personal post, lemme update you with some economic and business news from India –

• An Institute of Company Secretaries of India core group has recommended to set up rules for corporate governance which came into poor light when the Satyam scandal broke out. It seems the government has finally woke up to the ground reality of how lack of proper corporate governance rules can be so nakedly exploited by exectuives.
• The second important update is sharp fall in exports of merchandise products. India’s export for the month of March contracted by 14 to 20 percent from that of March, 2009. This was not unexpected though as Indian exporters fought hard for orders as most countries in the west are in recession. But the government and traders are optimistic about exports figure to remain at least static to that of 2008-2009 as G-20 summit have resolved to name and take action against protectionist countries.
• Another important business news is not particularly Indian, rather international but India is very much part of it and has huge bearings on its outcome. The G-20 summit held in London have pledged to raise $1.1 trillion to help countries in need during this tough economic scenario. It has also resolved to “name and shame” countries who are following a protectionist policy. But the US proposal for another round of stimulus package was not accepted by leaders of G-20 countries. There was also call for tighter financial regulations and tax havens are to be blacklisted from now on.
• The G-20 summit and some domestic measures has helped in raising the market as Bombay Stock Exchange sensitive index (sensex) was up by 447 points. All major international markets except FTSE of London also went up.

As we just read about all economic woes with countries hit by recession, business going downhill, is it wise of me to go for an Start-Up? I believe - this is the right kind of time for me to go for it. There are some reasons for my positive thinking.

• Firstly, the nature of my business. Well, you might have guessed it if you are a regular reader! I want to seriously enter the web world with domaining, blogging, SEO service, content writing services. As the global economy is going through a rough time, more and more businesses and companies will llok for greater reach and embrace e-commerce thus more opportunities for web service providers. The market can not go much downhill from present state. Indeed I expect the web to grow faster once global economy shows signs of recovery. Hence, more and more money will be spent for online advertising.
• The second point is - you need loans for your business and this is just the right time to get them. With governments taking step after step to stimulate the economies, interest rates very cheap (in fact I expect it to go down more) - there is now no problem in securing fast small business loans. As my business involves only buying some computers and setting up a small office, I don’t need huge amount o loans.
• With changing business environment, everything is becoming really cheap including real estate.

So, isn’t it the right time for me to mull over a small start-up? What do you say? :p

It was supped to happen!

When economies around the world were either in recession or contraction, Indian government has been projecting a GDP growth of more than 7% for the fiscal of 2008-09 which many economists and analysts termed as over optimistic. With falling demands in major markets around the world, the only way to keep a high growth rate is to create more demands in the domestic market and Indian government has been trying it through three-staged stimulus package by reducing interest rates and releasing huge flow of funds in the market.

It seems the packages were not timed well as third quarter (ending on 31st December from 1st October) GDP growth fell to 5.30% - thus falling below 6% for the first time since 2003. What is more worrying is the fact that farm sector contracted up to 2.20% and manufacturing sector fell 0.2% from the level during same time last year.

As a result of this, stock market fell by 0.7% during the day and Indian Rupees breached the record Rs. 51 barrier against the Greenback amidst sustained pressure for the dollar by foreign banks and oil importers.

With the announcement of this economic performance, eperts are having varied opinions. Some economist like Sherman Chan of Moodys believe that the governments projection of over 7% growth is over optimistic and it is high time the projection is revised. On the other hand, Pawan Kumar Bansal, the junior Finance Minister says the government still expects GDP to grow at over 7% during current fiscal. This group is of the opnion that the stimulus measures are yet to have major effects and the economy will recover during the 4th Quarter.

whatever happens, Industry is of the opnion of more rate cuts by the Central Bank as they need more liquidity in the market to take full advantage of stimulus packages announced by the government recently. This has necessitated more with this announcement of poor performance by the economy. Most believe that, if the economic growth slips below 6%, there will be huge job losses and India need to maintain a GDP growth rate of 8-9% in order to dent against the huge percentage of its people living below poverty line.